South Korea's Harrowing Shrinking Future
South Korea is currently on the verge of a population cliff. According to Statistics Korea, the nation’s total fertility rate dropped to 0.7 in the third quarter of 2023. This data suggests that the population decline in Korea could occur more rapidly than during the 14th century when the Black Death annihilated one-third of the European population. Worryingly, it seems undeniable that South Korea is facing a severe population decline. The Sungkyun Times (SKT) aims to explore the causes of South Korea’s drop in population and plausible solutions.
Population of Korea
-South Korean Population History
The population of South Korea has had many fluctuations in the past due to historical occurrences and shifts in the societal atmosphere. In 1925, the inaugural census employing modern techniques was first undertaken domestically, facilitating precise population enumeration. Then, in the 1940s, despite the somber era of Japanese colonization, population metrics exhibited an upward trajectory, with the total populace residing on the Korean Peninsula tallying up to 25.12 million by 1944. Moreover, the Korean War between 1950 and 1953 did not halt the increase in population during the post-war Baby Boom era from 1955 to 1964, when approximately 9 million babies were born due to the universal rush to early marriage. Until the 1990s, the government’s population policy focused on reducing population growth as the economic situation of the nation could not handle the overcrowding of people. However, in 1996, the government halted birth control policies by shifting its population policy focus from birth restriction to quality enhancement. This shift, therefore, indicated a commitment to improving the overall quality of the population. The success of such policies and diverse factors decreased the childbirth rate, which had been at around 1.5 births per woman, to a record low of 1.08 births in 2005. With an acceleration to this decline, low childbirth rates and the increase in the aging population gradually led the nation to a demographic cliff, causing childbirth policies to transition again based on the need for more children.
-Korea’s Demographic Cliff
The demographic cliff is a concept that was first introduced by the American economist Henry Dent in 2014. It refers to a country’s phase where the population of individuals aged between 45 and 49, who typically exhibit peak consumption patterns, begins to decline. This phase explains the negative impact of population decline on the economy as the reduction in consumption among large population groups leads to insufficient demand and thereby diminished production. After its peak consumption rates in 2010, as Dent predicted, the nation has been facing a drop in both consumption and population since 2016. The decline had been even more dramatic than expected, as the number of births set record lows for every month in 2023. At this rate, achieving a globally unprecedented rate of 0.6 births per woman is imminent, as the rate in Seoul City had already dropped to 0.59 births, indicating uncertainty about where the bottom actually lies. A low fertility rate will eventually lead to a decrease in the working-age population, meaning that a relatively small number of economically active individuals will have to support a larger number of both the elderly and children compared to before. Despite the nation having the lowest total dependency ratio among Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2022, Statistics Korea anticipates that South Korea will have the highest total dependency ratio by 2072. This highlights the situation’s urgency, implying an upcoming economic crisis in the nation.
Why Is the Demographic Cliff So Steep?
-Republic of Seoul
An important reason for the Korean demographic cliff is the overconcentration of the population in Seoul City. According to Busan Ilbo, in 2020, over half of the total population resided in the capital region, which comprises only 11.8% of the country’s land. Many professionals name this situation the “Republic of Seoul,” a nation in which Seoul is the only city, and emphasize its correlation to the gradual decrease in the nation’s birth rate. Jo Young-tae, the director of the Population Policy Research Center at Seoul National University, explained the concentrated population structure in the metropolitan area as a cause of the demographic cliff at the EDAILY Strategy Forum. This overpopulation in the metropolitan areas creates a vicious cycle of decreasing population in both capital and non-capital areas. First, non-capital regions face inevitable decline due to the exodus of young people for education, employment, and entrepreneurship opportunities in the capital region, leading to a significant decrease in population. Meanwhile, in densely populated metropolitan areas, intense competition arises naturally in areas such as housing, education, and employment. Consequently, the young generation lacks the resources in both capital and time to form families, especially since metropolitan Seoul emphasizes individualism and career, leaving little room to prioritize family formation. As a result, the proportion of unmarried individuals and single-person households increases, leading to a decline in the birth rate. The growing disproportion between the oversized capital region and the impoverished non-capital regions poses a severe threat to the nation’s competitiveness, contributing to the disintegration of social cohesion among members.
-Stuck in the Frame of Traditional Families
Another crucial factor affecting the decrease in the number of newborns is the lack of governmental systems to support new types of families. The number of married couples has been decreasing in Korea since 2011, and August 2023 saw the lowest number of marriages on record. With social advancement leading to delayed marriages, childbirth has become a physically challenging option, especially for individuals who choose not to have any or fewer children, as it is the optimal choice in terms of both economic and physical aspects. Jeong, a working woman in her thirties living in Seoul, said, “Marriage is currently my last option. Although I am in my late thirties, I still cannot see myself as a mother soon.” However, governmental support falls short for unmarried households and unmarried mothers who are in blind spots. In South Korea, the Civil Code is directly applied to childcare-related laws, defining families based on marriage. Most of the measures to address low birth rates are focused on supporting married households, worsening the phenomenon of discrimination against unmarried childbirths. Equal Employment Opportunity and WorkFamily Balance Assistance Act specifies the spouse of a worker as the subject of maternity leave, making it impossible for unmarried cohabitants to use maternity leave for childbirth. Furthermore, under this act, unmarried workers cannot utilize family care leave because they fall outside the framework explicitly defined as a family in the Civil Code, even if they have reasons such as accidents or illnesses. The same applies to parental leave, workplace childcare support, and childcare education support programs. South Korea lacks legislative systems to support non-traditional family forms, thus discouraging diverse family types and ultimately prolonging the decline of the population.
For a More Populous Korea
-85 Cities, 85 Communities
For the sustainable growth of the Korean population, it must be first evenly distributed throughout the nation. The balanced development of social overhead capital (SOC), indirect capital that contributes to various production activities, of over 85 cities in Korea can contribute to an effective distribution. The establishment of SOC indirectly enhances productivity by supporting the production activities of enterprises. Therefore, the Korean government needs to broaden the scope of SOC beyond transportation and consider all facilities closely related to people’s lives, which can enhance the quality of life of non-capital residents by providing them with mental and economic support. Additionally, upgrading living infrastructure in fields of culture and welfare, along with improving job-related infrastructure, is essential to suppress the outflow of non-capital residents to capital regions. For instance, in 1992, France revised the Act of Territorial Administration of the Republic, democratizing local administration and promoting cooperation between local governments and residents. As a result, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, almost all local cities with a population of 300,000 or more showed a population increase between 2011 and 2016. Moreover, the dispersal of SOC leading to the enhancement of living infrastructures will reduce overpopulation in Seoul City, ultimately relieving the level of tense competition among young generations. Park Jun-seo (Sophomore, Department of Chemical Engineering) told the SKT, “As getting a job and finding a place to live in Seoul is already very challenging, governmental alleviation is necessary.” A more spacious Seoul City, along with more busy local cities, will lead to the revitalization of the economy, allowing members of society to think about forming a family.
-Refinement of Governmental Childbirth System
The government should refine childbirth policies and support programs to include non-married households within the societal framework by alleviating the rigidity of the current legalistic view on the concept of families. Legal guarantees for non-married households have been proven to be an effective solution to the problem of low birth rates, as demonstrated in other countries. Sweden, which enacted the Family Law in 1969 to allow raising children without marriage through a system called Sambo, increased the nation’s total fertility rate to 1.66 in 2020. The South Korean government could adopt this precedent to grant different alternatives for the young generation who face economic difficulties in forming a family. Another refinement the governmental system needs is the expansion of welfare benefits for unmarried households to dismantle the discrimination between children from married and unmarried households. While the recent government decision to provide additional deductions for marriage funds — giving ₩1 billion received as a gift from direct lineal descendants — is positively evaluated, benefits should also be extended to those who have not married but have a child. Furthermore, the benefits should regard unmarried workers being able to utilize family care leave under the Equal Employment Opportunity and Work-Family Balance Assistance Act. To make this plausible, the government should expand the definition of family in the Civil Code. The diversification of the definition of a family through governmental effort can change social perceptions towards non-traditional families and support those who have children outside of the exemplary household to engage in Korean society. Therefore, governmental programs supporting procreations outside of traditional family conformation can open Korean society to a new pathway.
A nation can only exist with its people. With its current demographic cliff, South Korea may disappear into history, making the escape from this cliff desperate. However, instead of pushing the younger generations to get married and have children, the government needs to consider the reasons behind the population decrease and create a nation that its people would want to pass down to new generations.